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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 13 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(8:01) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to TEN 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 87-M.Mariani pushed ob at TEN 27 for 8 yards (41-T.Howard).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 29, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model