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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 52

Tennessee Titans 21 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(4:22) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to CLE 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 29-D.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.91 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 52, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.78 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model