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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 65

Cleveland Browns 13 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(13:51) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.63 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 23, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model