Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 89

Cleveland Browns 6 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(6:49) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to TEN 44, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 87-M.Mariani to CLE 46 for 10 yards (59-T.Carder). PENALTY on TEN-26-A.Andrews, Illegal Blindside Block, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 45.

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.94 EP
60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 89, worth -5.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model