Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 83

Cleveland Browns 6 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(14:19) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to TEN 34, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 41 for 7 yards (53-J.Schobert; 54-D.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -3.20 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.33 EP
72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 83, worth -4.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model