4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 18

Cleveland Browns 3 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-C.Parkey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.92 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 18, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model