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Cincinnati Bengals

2-4 HC Marvin Lewis
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New England Patriots

5-1 HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2016-10-16 · 13:00 ET Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

CIN
38.6%
NE
61.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.015 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.010 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.001 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Tom Brady (NE) +0.117 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.178 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CIN 20 13–27
–
NE 23 16–30
Projected margin: NE by 3 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 6

CIN

Tyler Eifert TE Out Back

NE

Jonathan Freeny LB Out Shoulder
Greg Scruggs TE Out Knee
Rob Gronkowski TE Questionable Hamstring
Martellus Bennett TE Questionable Ankle
LeGarrette Blount RB Questionable Hip
Brandon Bolden RB Questionable Knee
Marcus Cannon T Questionable Calf
Jamie Collins LB Questionable Hip
Julian Edelman WR Questionable Foot
Jimmy Garoppolo QB Questionable right Shoulder
Shea McClellin LB Questionable Concussion
Malcolm Mitchell WR Questionable Hamstring
Joe Thuney G Questionable Shoulder
Vincent Valentine DT Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 17
–
NE 35

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:11 FG NE (12:11) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. CIN 0 – NE 3
  • Q2 03:15 TD CIN (3:15) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – NE 3
  • Q2 01:06 TD NE (1:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 7 – NE 9
  • Q3 11:19 TD CIN (11:19) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 11-B.LaFell for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – NE 10
  • Q3 07:11 SAF NE (7:11) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked in End Zone for -8 yards, SAFETY (54-D.Hightower). CIN 14 – NE 12
  • Q3 05:04 TD NE (5:04) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 14 – NE 18
  • Q3 03:02 TD NE (3:02) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 14 – NE 25
  • Q4 12:37 FG CIN (12:37) 2-M.Nugent 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 17 – NE 25
  • Q4 06:08 FG NE (6:08) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. CIN 17 – NE 28
  • Q4 01:05 TD NE (1:05) 29-L.Blount up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NE-29-L.Blount, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CIN 17 – NE 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 6 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 75%

    (12:11) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 20%

    (7:46) 10-K.Huber punts 30 yards to NE 20, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-53-M.Flowers.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NE 4th & 12 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 26%

    (3:03) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to CIN 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (9:11) 94-D.Peko reported in as eligible. 25-G.Bernard left guard to NE 1 for no gain (96-A.Johnson; 97-A.Branch).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:47) 6-R.Allen punts 44 yards to CIN 39, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 40 for 1 yard (36-B.King).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:07) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to NE 23, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-J.Edelman to NE 40 for 17 yards (59-N.Vigil).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 9 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:22) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to CIN 5, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 16 for 11 yards (43-N.Ebner; 49-J.Cardona).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CIN 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:44) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to NE 38, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-J.Edelman to NE 47 for 9 yards (57-V.Rey; 81-T.Kroft).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CIN 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 22%

    (:24) 32-J.Hill left guard to NE 46 for 3 yards (26-L.Ryan). CIN-61-R.Bodine was injured during the play. His return is Doubtful. NE-74-W.Hamilton was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 97%

    (12:37) 2-M.Nugent 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (6:08) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (1:05) 29-L.Blount up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NE-29-L.Blount, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

    See the full breakdown →