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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 7

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – New England Patriots 25

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 2-M.Nugent 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +3.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.78 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 7, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP