4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 83

New England Patriots 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 6-R.Allen punts 44 yards to CIN 39, Center-49-J.Cardona. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 40 for 1 yard (36-B.King).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.65 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 83, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 41, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model