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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 13

New England Patriots 25 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(6:08) 3-S.Gostkowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 13, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 23, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model