Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 75

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – New England Patriots 10

(:07) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to NE 23, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-J.Edelman to NE 40 for 17 yards (59-N.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.13 EP
65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -2.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model