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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 47

New England Patriots 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to CIN 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.89 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth +0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model