Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 75

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – New England Patriots 19

(4:44) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to NE 38, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-J.Edelman to NE 47 for 9 yards (57-V.Rey; 81-T.Kroft).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model