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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 28

New England Patriots 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.81 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 28, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.86 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 38, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT +0.76 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model