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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
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New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
Sunday 2016-09-25 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

WAS
55.1%
NYG
44.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: +0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (WAS): +0.187 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG defense: +0.043 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 24
–
NYG 23
Projected margin: WAS by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

WAS

Kendall Reyes DE Out Groin
Ty Nsekhe T Questionable Foot
Martrell Spaight LB Questionable Concussion
Chris Baker DE Questionable Rib
Su'a Cravens S Questionable Hip
Josh Doctson WR Questionable Achilles
Kory Lichtensteiger C Questionable Back

NYG

Marshall Newhouse T Out Calf
Robert Thomas DT Out Illness
Darian Thompson S Out Foot
Rashad Jennings RB Questionable Thumb

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 29
–
NYG 27

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:35 TD NYG (12:35) 34-S.Vereen right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – NYG 6
  • Q1 09:40 FG WAS (9:40) 3-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – NYG 7
  • Q1 06:16 TD NYG (6:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle to 87-S.Shepard for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 3 – NYG 13
  • Q1 00:30 FG WAS (:30) 3-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 6 – NYG 14
  • Q2 08:39 FG WAS (8:39) 3-D.Hopkins 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 9 – NYG 14
  • Q2 04:16 TD NYG (4:16) (No Huddle) 26-O.Darkwa left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 9 – NYG 20
  • Q2 03:49 TD WAS (3:49) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 11-D.Jackson for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. WAS 15 – NYG 21
  • Q3 09:55 TD WAS (9:55) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 80-J.Crowder for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 22 – NYG 21
  • Q3 06:33 FG NYG (6:33) 3-J.Brown 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. WAS 23 – NYG 24
  • Q4 15:00 FG WAS (15:00) 3-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 26 – NYG 24
  • Q4 07:59 FG NYG (7:59) 3-J.Brown 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. WAS 26 – NYG 27
  • Q4 01:55 FG WAS (1:55) 3-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 29 – NYG 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:37) 9-B.Wing punts 44 yards to WAS 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 47-Q.Dunbar MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NYG-17-D.Harris at WAS 28. 17-D.Harris to WAS 28 for no gain (84-N.Paul). Penalty on WAS-35-D.Phillips, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 74%

    (9:40) 3-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 94%

    (:30) 3-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 14 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 82%

    (8:39) 3-D.Hopkins 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 5 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (13:22) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to NYG 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-D.Harris pushed ob at NYG 27 for 16 yards (51-W.Compton). PENALTY on NYG-28-P.Perkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 25. Officially, a return for 14 yards.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:13) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to WAS 42, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder to 50 for 8 yards (31-T.Wade, 57-K.Robinson).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (6:33) 3-J.Brown 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 12 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 25%

    (3:17) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way pass deep left to 47-Q.Dunbar to NYG 21 for 31 yards (17-D.Harris).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (15:00) 3-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 9 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (11:08) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to NYG 30, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 96%

    (7:59) 3-J.Brown 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 91%

    (1:55) 3-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.