4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 11

New York Giants 21 – Washington Commanders 23

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 3-J.Brown 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.51 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 11, worth +0.55 EP
KICK +2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT +0.55 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model