Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 71

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 9-B.Wing punts 44 yards to WAS 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 47-Q.Dunbar MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NYG-17-D.Harris at WAS 28. 17-D.Harris to WAS 28 for no gain (84-N.Paul). Penalty on WAS-35-D.Phillips, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model