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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 65

Washington Commanders 26 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to NYG 30, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.68 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 65, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 23, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model