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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 52

Washington Commanders 23 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(3:17) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way pass deep left to 47-Q.Dunbar to NYG 21 for 31 yards (17-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.01 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 52, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.83 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model