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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 12

New York Giants 24 – Washington Commanders 26

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 3-J.Brown 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.24 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 12, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP