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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 84

New York Giants 21 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to WAS 42, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder to 50 for 8 yards (31-T.Wade, 57-K.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.16 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 84, worth -4.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 42, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model