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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 19

Washington Commanders 26 – New York Giants 27

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 3-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.14 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 19, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 29, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model