Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NYJ offense: +0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- KC defense: -0.123 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ): +0.143 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- KC offense: -0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
- NYJ on 3 more days rest than KC
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 3
NYJ
KC
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 00:21 TD KC (:21) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – KC 6
- Q2 06:15 FG KC (6:15) 5-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. NYJ 0 – KC 10
- Q2 06:11 TD KC 5-C.Santos kicks 61 yards from KC 35 to NYJ 4. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 23 for 19 yards (42-A.Sherman). FUMBLES (42-A.Sherman), RECOVERED by KC-84-D.Harris at NYJ 27. 84-D.Harris for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – KC 16
- Q2 02:09 FG NYJ (2:09) 2-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 3 – KC 17
- Q4 03:44 TD KC (3:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right intended for 22-M.Forte INTERCEPTED by 56-D.Johnson at KC 45. 56-D.Johnson for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – KC 23
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 42Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 42%
(12:21) 4-L.Edwards punts 35 yards to KC 7, Center-46-T.Purdum. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 17 for 10 yards (95-J.Martin).
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Q1 KC 4th & 17 at the 38Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 53%
(5:21) 2-D.Colquitt punts 37 yards to NYJ 1, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-41-J.Winchester.
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Q2 KC 4th & 9 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%
(6:15) 5-C.Santos 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%
(2:09) 2-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
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Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 26%
(11:42) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to NYJ 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 69Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 61%
(9:27) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to KC 18, Center-46-T.Purdum. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 37 for 19 yards.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 9Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 96%
(2:21) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 81-Q.Enunwa to KC 5 for 4 yards (91-T.Hali).
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Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 50%
(12:27) 32-S.Ware up the middle to NYJ 39 for no gain (25-C.Pryor).
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Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(6:45) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to NYJ 29, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 40 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 48%
(4:43) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right intended for 15-B.Marshall INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen at KC 22. 49-D.Sorensen ran ob at KC 22 for no gain.
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Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 75 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(4:21) 2-D.Colquitt punts 46 yards to NYJ 29, Center-41-J.Winchester. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 41 for 12 yards (10-T.Hill; 57-D.Alexander).