Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 49

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – New York Jets 3

(11:42) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to NYJ 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.02 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP

KICK -1.58 EP

26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
74% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model