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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 9

New York Jets 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(2:21) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 81-Q.Enunwa to KC 5 for 4 yards (91-T.Hali).

The Three Options

GO +3.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.34 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 9, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model