Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 77

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – New York Jets 3

(6:45) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to NYJ 29, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.00 EP
61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 77, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model