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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 40

New York Jets 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(4:43) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right intended for 15-B.Marshall INTERCEPTED by 49-D.Sorensen at KC 22. 49-D.Sorensen ran ob at KC 22 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.76 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -1.48 EP
KICK -0.04 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model