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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 42

New York Jets 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(12:21) 4-L.Edwards punts 35 yards to KC 7, Center-46-T.Purdum. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 17 for 10 yards (95-J.Martin).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.20 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.25 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.24 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP