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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 39

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(12:27) 32-S.Ware up the middle to NYJ 39 for no gain (25-C.Pryor).

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.24 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -0.35 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model