Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 75

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – New York Jets 3

(4:21) 2-D.Colquitt punts 46 yards to NYJ 29, Center-41-J.Winchester. 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 41 for 12 yards (10-T.Hill; 57-D.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -2.13 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.56 EP
61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 75, worth -3.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model