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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2016-09-18 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

DAL
27.3%
WAS
72.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: -0.152 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • WAS offense: +0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (WAS): +0.193 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS defense: +0.028 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 20
–
WAS 28
Projected margin: WAS by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

DAL

Mark Nzeocha LB Out Achilles
Tony Romo QB Out Back
Charles Tapper DE Out Back
Jack Crawford DE Questionable Shoulder
Ronald Leary G Questionable Groin
Orlando Scandrick CB Questionable Hamstring
Geoff Swaim TE Questionable Ankle

WAS

Kendall Reyes DE Out Groin
Martrell Spaight LB Out Concussion
Trent Williams T Questionable Glute
Chris Baker DE Questionable Rib
Su'a Cravens S Questionable Hip
Josh Doctson WR Questionable Achilles

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 27
–
WAS 23

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:29 FG DAL (9:29) 5-D.Bailey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – WAS 0
  • Q1 01:45 TD DAL (1:45) 79-C.Green reported in as eligible. 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – WAS 0
  • Q2 13:16 TD WAS (13:16) 31-M.Jones left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DAL 10 – WAS 6
  • Q2 04:39 FG DAL (4:39) 5-D.Bailey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 13 – WAS 7
  • Q2 00:31 FG WAS (:31) 3-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. DAL 13 – WAS 10
  • Q3 11:23 TD WAS (11:23) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 80-J.Crowder for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [96-M.Collins]. DAL 13 – WAS 16
  • Q3 05:47 TD DAL (5:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 19 – WAS 17
  • Q3 02:10 FG WAS (2:10) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. DAL 20 – WAS 20
  • Q3 00:07 FG WAS (:07) 3-D.Hopkins 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. DAL 20 – WAS 23
  • Q4 04:49 TD DAL (4:49) 46-A.Morris right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 26 – WAS 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (9:29) 5-D.Bailey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 7 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 55%

    (7:01) 5-T.Way punts 32 yards to DAL 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 74%

    (2:49) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-G.Swaim pushed ob at WAS 2 for 28 yards (30-D.Bruton) [52-T.Garvin].

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:52) 6-C.Jones punts 56 yards to WAS 4, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 25 for 21 yards (41-K.Smith).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:14) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to DAL 37, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-L.Whitehead pushed ob at DAL 44 for 7 yards (22-D.Everett).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 95%

    (4:39) 5-D.Bailey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 91%

    (:31) 3-D.Hopkins 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 6 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

    (2:10) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (:07) 3-D.Hopkins 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:00) 6-C.Jones punts 54 yards to WAS 12, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 21 for 9 yards (38-J.Heath).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 88-P.Garcon (56-J.Durant).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 9 at the 42 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 45%

    (1:40) 6-C.Jones punts 32 yards to WAS 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-31-B.Jones.