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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 4

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:29) 5-D.Bailey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 4, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP