4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 13

Dallas Cowboys 10 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 5-D.Bailey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.35 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 13, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model