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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 66

Dallas Cowboys 20 – Washington Commanders 23

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 6-C.Jones punts 54 yards to WAS 12, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 21 for 9 yards (38-J.Heath).

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.94 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 24, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model