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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 38

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(7:01) 5-T.Way punts 32 yards to DAL 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.08 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model