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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 56

Washington Commanders 23 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 88-P.Garcon (56-J.Durant).

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.55 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 56, worth -2.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 17, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model