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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 4

Washington Commanders 20 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(:07) 3-D.Hopkins 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.14 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 4, worth +0.50 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP