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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 30

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-G.Swaim pushed ob at WAS 2 for 28 yards (30-D.Bruton) [52-T.Garvin].

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.90 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model