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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2016-09-11 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 50.0

Win Probability

OAK
30.4%
NO
69.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.187 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.206 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Drew Brees (NO) +0.185 vs Derek Carr (LV) -0.068 EPA/dropback
  • NO offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

OAK 22
–
NO 27
Projected margin: NO by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

OAK

Austin Howard T Out Ankle

NO

Dannell Ellerbe LB Out Quadricep
Chris Manhertz TE Questionable Head
Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee
Michael Thomas WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 35
–
NO 34

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:28 FG LV (12:28) 11-S.Janikowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 3 – NO 0
  • Q1 06:36 FG NO (6:36) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. OAK 3 – NO 3
  • Q1 01:48 TD LV (1:48) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 9 – NO 3
  • Q2 12:00 TD NO (12:00) (Run formation) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 83-W.Snead for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 1, YAC 0 OAK 10 – NO 9
  • Q2 05:02 TD NO (5:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 10-B.Cooks for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 15, YAC 0 OAK 10 – NO 16
  • Q3 08:03 TD NO (8:03) 68-T.Lelito reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 10-B.Cooks for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 29, YAC 69 OAK 10 – NO 23
  • Q3 03:16 FG LV (3:16) 11-S.Janikowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 13 – NO 24
  • Q4 11:57 TD LV (11:57) 49-J.Olawale left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 19 – NO 24
  • Q4 08:46 FG NO (8:46) 3-W.Lutz 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. The field goal was hit by LV #96 D.Autry, but still was good. OAK 19 – NO 27
  • Q4 08:38 TD LV (8:38) 30-J.Richard left guard for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 25 – NO 27
  • Q4 06:07 TD NO (6:07) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 38-T.Cadet for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 1, YAC 1 OAK 27 – NO 33
  • Q4 00:52 TD LV (:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 10-S.Roberts for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 33 – NO 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 18 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 79%

    (12:28) 11-S.Janikowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (12:00) (Run formation) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 83-W.Snead for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 1, YAC 0

  • Q2 LV 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:11) 7-M.King punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (2:52) 7-M.King punts 41 yards to NO 26, Center-59-J.Condo. 23-M.Murphy to NO 32 for 6 yards (49-J.Olawale).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 26%

    (1:20) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to LV 8, Center-47-J.Drescher. 38-T.Carrie to LV 18 for 10 yards (36-D.Lasco).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:41) 7-M.King punts 53 yards to NO 15, Center-59-J.Condo. 23-M.Murphy to NO 26 for 11 yards (56-D.Bates). PENALTY on NO-46-K.Crawley, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 20. INJURY UPDATE - Oakland #71 M.Watson, QUESTIONABLE to return.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 5 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (11:37) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to LV 34, Center-47-J.Drescher. 30-J.Richard pushed ob at NO 40 for 26 yards (36-D.Lasco). PENALTY on LV-41-B.Trawick, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 40. INJURY UPDATE - NO #40 D.Breaux, leg, PROBABLE.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 42%

    (8:12) 7-M.King punts 43 yards to NO 2, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-18-A.Holmes.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (3:16) 11-S.Janikowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 71%

    (13:47) 3-W.Lutz 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (8:46) 3-W.Lutz 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. The field goal was hit by LV #96 D.Autry, but still was good.