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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 2

New Orleans Saints 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 19

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 3-W.Lutz 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. The field goal was hit by LV #96 D.Autry, but still was good.

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.26 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 2, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP