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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 45

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 7-M.King punts 43 yards to NO 2, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-18-A.Holmes.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.72 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model