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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 7-M.King punts 53 yards to NO 15, Center-59-J.Condo. 23-M.Murphy to NO 26 for 11 yards (56-D.Bates). PENALTY on NO-46-K.Crawley, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 20. INJURY UPDATE - Oakland #71 M.Watson, QUESTIONABLE to return.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 68, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 26, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP