4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 13

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 11-S.Janikowski 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.77 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 13, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model