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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 18 at the 29

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 11-S.Janikowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.90 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 29, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 39, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model