4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 52

New Orleans Saints 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to LV 8, Center-47-J.Drescher. 38-T.Carrie to LV 18 for 10 yards (36-D.Lasco).

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.06 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 52, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model