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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 33

New Orleans Saints 24 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(13:47) 3-W.Lutz 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.23 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model