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New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2016-09-11 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

NYG
43.1%
DAL
56.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: -0.165 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.161 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NYG offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 23
–
DAL 24
Projected margin: DAL by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

NYG

Robert Thomas DT Out Illness

DAL

Mark Nzeocha LB Out Achilles
Tony Romo QB Out Back
Charles Tapper DE Out Back
Ronald Leary G Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 20
–
DAL 19

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:37 FG DAL (6:37) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. NYG 0 – DAL 3
  • Q2 11:14 FG DAL (11:14) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. NYG 0 – DAL 6
  • Q2 09:41 TD NYG (9:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 84-L.Donnell for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – DAL 6
  • Q2 04:08 FG DAL (4:08) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. NYG 7 – DAL 9
  • Q2 00:13 TD NYG (:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 87-S.Shepard for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – DAL 9
  • Q3 10:53 TD DAL (10:53) 21-E.Elliott right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – DAL 15
  • Q4 14:04 FG DAL (14:04) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. NYG 13 – DAL 19
  • Q4 06:19 TD NYG (6:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 80-V.Cruz for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 19 – DAL 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (6:37) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:17) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback. PENALTY on DAL-24-M.Claiborne, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 20.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%

    (4:08) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 15 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:48) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to DAL 31, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 40 for 9 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:41) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 47 yards to NYG 12, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:12) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 50 yards to DAL 18, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 25 for 7 yards (29-N.Berhe).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 65%

    (14:04) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 43%

    (12:06) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:25) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 56 yards to NYG 29, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 17-D.Harris pushed ob at NYG 46 for 17 yards (89-G.Escobar).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 13 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:06) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to NYG 23, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 37 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 62%

    (1:12) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.