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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 5

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(6:37) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.44 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 5, worth +0.59 EP
KICK +2.44 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model