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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 55

New York Giants 13 – Dallas Cowboys 19

What Actually Happened

(12:06) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.65 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 55, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP