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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 7

Dallas Cowboys 6 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(4:08) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.12 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 7, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model